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Mitt Romney wanted to head into Super Tuesday with some momentum, and after winning Michigan and Arizona earlier in the week, and beating Rick Santorum by double digits in Washington yesterday, he's arguably right where he wants to be.
Romney and the other three remaining Republican presidential candidates waged a tougher-than-expected battle for Washington's votes, even though no delegates to the national convention were decided there.
Each candidate has spent time and money in recent weeks in hopes of picking up a victory -- and political momentum -- in Washington, as a table-setter to Super Tuesday, next week's slate of 10 caucuses and primaries across the country.
Though polling a couple of weeks ago showed Santorum doing well in the Evergreen State, his standing faltered, and the former senator ended up finishing third, just behind Ron Paul, who lost to Romney by about 13 points, despite having made an aggressive effort in the state.
All four Republican candidates campaigned in Washington, which traditionally doesn't see any GOP presidential hopefuls in person, and which in turn boosted turnout well above 2008 levels. Romney, in particular, exploited his organizational advantage to turn the polls around and come out on top, while Santorum, still unable to create a national campaign infrastructure, "struggled to build a big organization in Washington."
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George Will reported today that he does not expect the GOP to win the presidency, but is hopeful for majorities in both houses of congress. This would essentially doom any of President Obama's legislative goals to be totally blocked. We must not allow any complacency about the presidential election to cause us to lose focus on the congressional seats up for election this year. It is also imperative to vote for the most moderate state representatives possible to keep the country from losing the freedoms gained in the last two generations,
Will could be right about the Presidency, and the more Republicans talk down their chances the more depressed Republican turnout may hopefully be, but he is likely wrong about Congress. If the electorate is in a conventional throw-the-bums-out mentality about Congressional races, then we may see both houses flip to the other party. On the other hand, if Republicans keep up their anti-women tear, they are going to lose more and more women. They won't lose all. Just as there are gays and working people who vote against their own interests, so there are women who do the same. But since the Republicans are taking a machete to women's rights and women's health in both state legislatures and in Congress, and there is no sign that they are ever going to let up, then it is possible that they will lose enough women Republican-leaning independents to put everything into the hands of Democrats.
But all that depends on what else develops between now and November. If Israel bombs Iran and gas goes to $12 a gallon, or the economies of Europe implode and take the rest of the world with them, then get ready for a GOP rout.
I like George Will. But he is "hopeful" the Cubs will will the World Series, too. There is always a difference between analysis and wishing.
I agree with the Monk that the Reps. attacks on gays, women, immigrants, poor people, etc. is going to cost them dearly in Nov.
i thought obama was suppose to close Gitmo...he promised us that...now i see hes giving $750,000 to build a soccer field to muslims that want to kill us...what a piece of @!$%# obozo
Umm you do realize that a. the soccer field has already been built and b. that it was put there for us military and civilian personnel, not for the inmates, correct? Additionally the reason why Obama hasn't been able to close Gitmo has been because of Congress. Congress has blocked his attempts to send the detainees to American soil. He's been able to get approval to do that w/ some prisoners, but not all. I just find it funny that you'd say this when the person who initiated this conversation was talking about the US Congress stalling PBO's agenda....
The social issues that Dems are currently experiencing victories over, will have lost some impact by fall, and if ALL of the Dems running at state level stick to the exact same platform as Obama, they risk losing in November.
The GOP is counting on it.
The State Reps. will have to broaden their issue selection with something other than birth control and auto company bail outs, or the GOP could win it all.
If the Dems get put on the defensive regarding other issues, they might stay on the defensive until it's too late.
If Romney and Wall Street occupy the White House, we will be all but an Aristocracy by 2013.
http://www.gopeabrain.com
What the Republicans are counting on, and what they can rely on, are two different things. It is clear that they will be continuing their culture war jihad for the foreseeable future. They began this when they took over the House and several states in 2010. Why should they suddenly stop now? They clearly believe that this is a winning strategy, therefore they will continue on this path up through November.
It's really not clear what you're on about, Joe. I think you're concern-trolling. Taking your remarks at face value, you seem to be arguing that the Democrats' best path to victory is to stop hitting the Republicans' self-inflicted wounds. As long as Republicans are keen to hang themselves, Democrats would be foolish to close the rope store. Democrats need to have a broad platform, they will have a broad platform, and taking advantage of the public's rising consciousness of Republican policies is going to be a part of their strategy. The Republicans are too blind to the full implications of the opposition they've felt thus far to do more than respond with insignificant tactical retreats.
Willard Mitt Romney is proof that being an accomplished liar, being a robot robber baron, being a vicious vulture capitalist, being a constant phoney, being a pathetic pander bear, is how you make it as a Republican.
Mouzer and Monk: while you're correct in your analyses, please don't feed the trolls. It just encourages them to think their strategeries are working and this lady would just as soon they all retreat into the woodwork once and for all!
Monk...The Dems will be facing other issues as they move forward, they will have social issues on their side but it will take more.
I didn't say "stop hitting them" with these issues, but they will need more than just social issues to win, and will need to address other issues before the GOP does.
I'm merely pointing out that if ALL the Dems running, state or federal, follow the same exact platform as Obama, and Obama gets put on the defensive over other issues that are of a major concern, or if the economy stalls or halts, they will ALL have a difficult time of it. .
If Obama loses to other key issues and ALL of the Dems use the same points,they may be following him to conciliatory speeches.
If you and others feel this election will be about only social issues you're mistaken. The GOP voters will be voting GOP regardless of who's been insulted or what position any of them taken on any social issues.
The middle has other issues to consider and they will. Don't be foolish.
Joe, your framing of things is only convincing me that you're a concern troll. You are slyly insinuating that it is the Democrats, not the Republicans, who are keeping culture-war issues alive. It has become a right-wing meme recently that if only Democrats and the media would stop bringing up all this culture-war stuff, then Republicans wouldn't have to spend so much time fending off the accusations. The reality is that Republicans are eager to wage culture war, but do not wish the fact to be recognized, discussed, or countered. Hence the attempt to turn the matter inside out. If you were really concerned about Democratic chances, you would not be framing that concern in this way.
(And, admonishing me not to be 'foolish' as a means of trying to shame me into adopting your point of view...not clever at all.)
Monk..It's difficult to make points with limited wordage but I'll do my best.
I'll put things in a more realistic prospective.
I have been in business for 27 years, being in business means that I have others who count on me for a paycheck.
If, between now and November I have to lay off employees, or close my doors, I will be blaming this administration for diddling with "social issues", and will not hesitate to vote GOP.
Not all business owners are pro union, and tend to be frustrated paying 50K for business vehicles.
This administration experienced a backlash in 2010, because they were "diddling" with "universal health care" in a faltering economy. Why do you think the Dems lost seats?
Do you really think this may not happen again? Do you think my employees will care who gets free birth control pills if I lay them off? They will more than likely be sour and vote GOP as well.
If you think I'm concern troll...wait until November. You can bet your little hoody that there a lot of others like me with legitimate concerns and a lot less of you with nothing more than pseudo "strategic analysis".
So now you've moved on to ad verecundiam, with a hint of ad hominem. Very classy.
That's cute...and I'm sure how you characterize my points may be of some importance to you.
That being said, you should "move towards reality" with a hint of "responsibility", before assuring members of the blog that complacency will be a winning strategy for them.
There once was a blogger named Joe
Who thought everything he did know
But delusional zingers
From a brainwashed right-winger
Are actually the rants of a schmoe
See what you've done Monk...from politics to poetry. This line of thinking is surrrre to be verrrry effective against the right . We might as well not even hold a vote...you have a poem to use...LOL
Need any help "leading the lambs to the lions this fall?
Delusional zingers anyone ?
Case...and point.
There once was a Joe who did blog
Whose mind was lost in a fog
He thought he was witty
But, oh, what a pity
He was just an ad hominem snob
Ooo-kay...Joe the concern-tr0ll is also Joe the sock-puppet?
ok..If you're into poetry and puppets, I guess I'll go with this new "serious" approach of yours. What ever floats your boat.
Twas the night of election
and all through the house,
we watched MSNBC news
for election results.
The economy was struggling,
unemployment was high,
but Hope wrote a poem
and Monk said "oh my".
As states turned red
on Chris Mathews chart,
Monk and Hope realized
social issues played little part.
The middle had chosen,
red over blue,
complacency had given,
the Devil his due.
Monk. The sock puppet troll is also a copy cat. But then, when you run out of delusional zingers, I suppose copying the intelligent commentary of true thinkers is all you have left.
By the end of next week...Things will already have changed.
But fight on with your candle and hoody. Let's revisit this then shall we?
My prediction:
The GOP will be ready to rally behind Romney...The Dems will have played into the GOP "social issue rope a dope", and Romney and the GOP will be coming out swinging hard with economic issues.
Obama will be on the defensive from that point on. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm usually pretty accurate for a sock puppet concern troll. LOL
And that's "MR." sock puppet concern troll to you. LOL
Just keep telling yourself that and you'll be fine, 'till November that is.
LOL John. We have to teach the troll to say ' Democratic Tidal Wave in 2012 '. Wake up and smell the voting ' MR. ' Sock Puppet.
Children...as much as I adore political limericks, you must stop feeding the trolls!
The line talking about Washington's "turnout well above 2008 levels" is deceptive.
Yes, this year's caucus was larger than the caucus of 4 years ago but in 2008 there was a GOP primary in Washington and the caucus was a minor side-show. This year the big event was the caucus.
The 2008 Primary had over 10x the turnout of this year's Washington GOP nominating event. In 2008 529,932 WA Republican's participated in the Republican Party's major presidential candidate nominating event. This year it was a miniscule 50,764.
By the inexorable Law of Anyone but Mitt, isn't it now a foregone conclusion that Ron Paul -- the only ABM who hasn't surged into the lead yet -- will be the winner of Super Tuesday? :)
I don't know but it would seem to me that winning Seattle and environs isn't such a good thing. Looking at that map, Romney won the parts of Washington that consistently turn Washington Blue. When Washington is NOT blue, the parts that turn it red went for Santorum and Paul.
I'm not saying that a bunch of Dems turned out for Mitt, but I doubt this will have much, if any effect on the rest of the country.
Romney isn't winning because of his magnetic personality. And he certainly isn't winning because of his views (which shift with the winds and each new audience before whom he appears) and policy prescriptions. He's winning because his opponents are bats*** crazy, making him appear to be the only halfway sane choice.
It isn't like his campaign is generating momentum on its own.
Gotta say, watching it on CNN was a lot less fun than watching it on MSNBC might have been.
You TRMS blog runners could have at least put up a post last evening for us to reply to.
Saw the premiere of GAME CHANGE, the HBO movie from the last Republican campaign for President, starring Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin and Ed Harris as John McCain. I really thought Julianne Moore WAS Sarah Palin by the end of the movie. See my review on ChicksFlicks.comfile://localhost/Users/wilmasmelcer/Desktop/chicks-flicks-logo.png
This won't do anything for someone without an account on ChicksFlicks.com, and not much for someone who does have an account on that machine.
Try: http://www.chicksflicks.com/movies/game-change
Go Mitt Gingrich, go!
The Replug party is toast, even it's "conservative mouthpiece" (drug addict, pederast, erectile dysfunction-whale) has been made to "apologize". Not for "child-rearing" mind you but for a far lesser impropriety. Mitt Gingrich, king of the "child-rearing" party! Oh yea!
I wonder if the Catholic Council on Pedophiles and Bishopry will approve? Here's hoping!
Question for a historian of Presidential politics: Since WWII, has either major party ever nominated a candidate whose unfavorable rating was as high as Mitt Romney"s? If yes, did that candidate become President?
I think Nixon in '68 might have managed it
Can you provide data to back that up? All I can find is polling for Nixon while he was in office. Are you sure you are not projecting a post-Watergate perspective back into 1968?
Sorry, no data at all on that, & it's possible I am backprojecting certainly - my impression, based on reading about the 68 campaign, was that Nixon was widely hated by the left & much of the center, and got elected because the Chicago fiasco and Humphrey's nomination destroyed much of the Dem base ... but I'm by no means an expert on presidential politics, he just stuck out as a likely. Whether its the same degree as Mittens, I couldnt say.
Oh, yeah, Nixon never had any friends on the left. But, as you say, the Democrats had a lot of problems that cycle: the things you've mentioned, plus the fact that the Vietnam issue made it impossible for LBJ to run for a second term. Losing the incumbent in that was a hard blow for Democratic chances before the race even began.
I think count asks an interesting question but, like I said, I could only find polling info online about Nixon's ratings as President, not as a candidate in 1968. If I knew more about polling I'd probably have a better idea of where to look. I'm sorry that you don't have the info yourself, because it probably would help rate Romney's chances.
Steve - you're getting suckered by the WA party establishment (well all the press is, not just you). The actual WA election/delegate allocation isnt decided yet, all thats reported is a nonbinding straw poll held at the start of each caucus. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Paul scoop the pool on actual delegate count here. The establishment is just trying to control the story and give Romney his bump before Stupid Tuesday (cf Maine caucuses for how this works).
Check Charlie Pierce's usual brilliant filing:
'that involved only about 50,000 voters and saw the state party announcing a "winner" based on results of non-binding straw polls conducted at each caucus site. (The delegate haul for each candidate remains a mystery, and in any case Washington's Republican delegates are free to make up, or change, their minds at a later point
Read more: http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/#ixzz1oBi1sFlu
Romney will be scoring easy in Super Tuesday too, because as part of the Republican establishment Mr.Limbaugh's new stunt is only because he wants to take all the air out of Super Tuesday and end the primary season now.
Mr.Limbaugh's has America so divided!!! PLEASE Tell Limbaugh's advertisers: Stop supporting him NOW. Sing this petition now http://act.credoaction.com/campaign/ads_limbaugh/?rc=LA_Rush_03022012_ad3
Hey Rachel did you know that rush Limbaugh's radio station is owned by Bain Capitol