We talked earlier about Rick Santorum positioning himself as the top GOP rival to Mitt Romney at the national level. That also increasingly appears to be the case in key states.
Public Policy Polling just released these results from the state of Michigan.
Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.
Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.
Remember, this was believed to be one of Romney's most likely wins. That "let Detroit go bankrupt" policy notwithstanding, he's from Michigan and his father was governor of the state.
And yet, here we are.
Newt Gingrich's support is collapsing, and in an interesting twist, Romney has to hope that the former Speaker sticks around for a while -- PPP shows Santorum leading Romney by 21 points in Michigan if Gingrich weren't in the race.
Santorum's principal enemy at this point is time. The Michigan primary won't be held for two more weeks, which gives Romney all kinds of time to take advantage of his considerable financial edge, doing what the former governor always does when he sees a threat: invest in attack ads until the threat is destroyed.
For now, however, Santorum not only has reason to feel some optimism, he also can credibly start telling the right this is a race between him and Romney -- and if conservative activists and donors agree, the former senator's candidacy will be that much more difficult to dismiss.
Romney is hearing whispers of doubt after a rough week. If he struggles in Michigan, those whispers will become roars.
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if Little Ricky wins Michigan
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Watch the GOP Establishment go absolutely crazy
Go? Can you go from crazy to crazy? The real question is how can a relgious zealot get so close? Are we ever going to believe that any theocrat could be president? Never before have we allowed a blatantly religious individual make it this far.
Something stinks and it ain't danish.
Paul: Agreed. But I think this is why it's safer to "root" for Rick to get the nomination than Mitt. I think we all know that Mitt's campaign will swing moderate once (if?) he gets the nomination; I think his campaign people will find it more beneficial for Mitt to lose the extreme right base in favor of the moderate Republicans, conservative Democrats, and the independents. I don't think such a scenario is unlikely.
Alternately, if Santorum gets the nomination, I think it's safe to assume that many of the moderates and independents will not go for him. If anything, they'll stay home.
Who knows - the way this campaign is going, anything can happen. :)
Also, we must not lose sight of the midterm elections. We must win back the House! :)
Correction: crazier!
Melissa, I cannot see how Mittens could move toward the center and be believable. He's the severest Conservative that we know. Everything he has said will be brought out against him. it'll be fun to watch. But I am wondering how Mittens is going to actually move to the center.
Willow: I thought of that, but it seems to me that Mitt is resigned to being a flip-flopper. In fact, it's almost like a badge of honor for him at this point. He's quite disgraceful in the way he outright denies things he said on film and the voters keep him in the lead. I wonder, why wouldn't he be emboldened and continue this into general elections?
Willow: I guess my point is that Mitt has never been believable, and yet he's the frontrunner and, to many, still the inevitable nominee. I don't know how anyone can explain that, but since it's working for him, why wouldn't he just go with it? :)
I'm laughing right now, because I read myself and it all seems so absurd......
But I am wondering how Mittens is going to actually move to the center.
We have always been at war with Eastasia.
Remember, unlike the wonky bunch you meet here the general electorate isn't paying much attention. The hard-core Republicans who would object to a left shift won't hear about it in the general election because Fox, Limbaugh, etc won't cover that detail -- they'll just hammer the fact that it's a good God-fearing Republican family values dude against the Kenyan islamofascist atheist Commie who wants to draft your daughters for sex slavery and forced abortions.
Romney, Santorum, Romney, Santorum - maybe that "base" really is disgruntled? I mean it's between a flip/flop & throw-back to the "Victorian age" - talk about a hard rock and the cliff's edge......
I really think you're making Santorum out to be far more modern than he is.
Santorum can afford a dozen children, most cannot. Bringing unwanted children into this world is the real sin, and furthermore, will most likely increase the no. of abortions. Jerks!
There you go Marlana, thinking logically.....That's just so rational....The GOP doesn't DO rational or logical......They believe in the "culture of life" until it's born, then you and all those babies are on your own......Next time get a husband.....
Maye I lack imagination, but I have to wonder what those anti-Santorum attack ads are going to look like. Gingrich's problem was always that he's a shady, creepy old man. Santorum has some creepy aspects too, but as far as I can tell, the only problem with Santorum from a right-wing point of view is that he spent time in Washington and had something to do with earmarks. That doesn't seem like such a big deal compared to Gingrich's baggage. How else could he be attacked from the right? That he's too opposed to gay marriage?
Why Multiple Choice Mitt will flip again portraying himself as a moderate not as ....you know ..... EXTREME! as Ricky.
I believe that some ear marks are positive. I also think a candidate's experience with politicians is an asset and not a detriment like the reps. want to believe. Hey, an MBA may be a positive (meaning experience with balancing budgets), it does not prepare one for the onslaught of an opposing party. If a businessman thinks he can run the government like you do a business, the US will go bankrupt.
I have been wondering that too. Santorum also will have a lot of support by Michigan conservatives because of his policy on how to create jobs here in America. Santorum wants to practically eliminate taxes on manufacturing companies and employers who hire manufacturing workers. I think his proposal drops their effective tax rate to something like 12%. People in Michigan should naturally flock to that if they are conservatives or Republican. I blogged about this the other day: if Santorum's campaign were intelligent they'd put the cultural issues aside and talk about how Santorum plans on creating jobs in America. While his plan is still bullpuckey (don't worry I didn't turn conservative over night on you ;-)) his plan will sound good to Republicans and people who have a tendency to vote Republican. The fact that his campaign hasn't picked up on this says more about them than it does about the party....
Perhaps the real problem here is that these Republicans have terrible campaign managers...sorry, I guess I shouldn't go off on this. When your dad worked for the Ross Perot campaign you probably shouldn't brag about 'good campaign strategies.' Eek.
You are SO right, Mariana. This is what I keep saying--If Mitt Romney (and Herman Cain before him) think that being President means people have to do what they say (like they did at Bain or Godfather's), they are in for a rude awakening! Congress does NOT take orders from the President--even a President of their own party!
Rick Santorum is so FAR to the right he makes the Spanish Inquisition look benign. He is also the biggest hypocrite this side of hell. Mrs. Santorum - who from all accounts is a pretty straight up lady and shouldn't have to endure what she does - had serious trouble with one of those 12 pregnancies and had to have a late term, partial-birth abortion. This is, of course, OK if you're an elite Republican with family values bona-fides and Koch Brothers financing but it's not OK for everyone else.
The former Senator is also so pathologically homophobic that I won't be surprised if the next "standing too close in the men's room" headline involves him.
Does that explain sufficiently?
I call him the "new Torquamada."
"...'cause you can't 'torquamada' anything!" (Mel Brooks in History of the World)
Do votes count in Michigan primaries? Or is this another state like Maine, Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado, where people cast ballots as though it were a slightly formal poll, measuring the mood of the day in one particular state?
According to the Fla. AG the electorate is not required to vote the way the polls tell them to anyway. At least that is what he said when chads were hanging.
It's a closed primary, 30 delegates, hybrid, meaning some districts are proportional and some are winner take all, and they are binding.
And if Santorum wins, that will be a Mittastrophe.
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/
Please tell me the GOP will be stupid enough to make Santorum their candidate! That would be an Obama landslide.
What a great early christmas present that would be.
Obama looks like the eventual winner , none of the four , will be strong enough to beat Obama , but if Romney & Santotum team up , maybe they have a chance otherwise we have Obama for another four years , OH I almost forgot , DOOMSDAY is Dec. 21 , so the election don't mean a thing . .
Mitt is not considered a Michigander...Please stop repeating his lie....Just cause you lived her once doesn't make you one of us..He was governor of another state...He aint from here no more.....Besides...isn't he an Anchor baby?
Mitt is a native of Michigan, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Utah, California, ....and anywhere else it's convenient for him to claim native standing. He's as committed to his view of where he's from as he is to his other policy views.
What's he going to attack? On every policy point out there, he's let Santorum define the position and then said, "me too!" Is he going to try to paint Santorum as being a liberal? As not being a "family values" dude? Is he going to go for Santorum for being Catholic?
Popcorn. Must stock up on popcorn.
DC, I'll bring the butter and the beer.
And we can all provide the farts! can't wait!
Popcorn for everyone!
Romney is trying to present himself as a conservative.
Mitt can attack Santorum from any angle. Not with truth, but it's been a long time since Mitt used the truth for anything.
My wife puts M&Ms in our popcorn just after it's popped and still warm. Delicious!
@MechTrek
You are really loving this, aren't you? =)))
I am! Ricky used to be my senator and now he's all growed up. :P
Romney's only possible attack against Santorum is against his deep corruption, including strong ties to Abramoff, sweat shops with forced abortion and prostitution, and the K Street Project. Those could do real damage. But everything else about Ricky is very attractive to the base that will drive this primary. Frankly, if Romney attacks him as he needs to he will be destroying an actual religious conservative base hero. Which will make Romney even less favorable.
He is in a real bind here.
If he is so attractive to reps., why did it take him this long to rise to the top? Of course, the media seems to allow the front runners to answer more questions. I think Romney can take Santorum down with dirty politics and then we are in trouble. I am sure that once Romney wins the rep. nomination, he will present more moderate ideas.
Knock off the hot tub jokes.
But isn't this one of Mitt Romney's dozen home states?
Face it, a Santorum presidency is a non-starter. The GOP just isn't in this election.
I do not agree with that . .
A major economic shock, a war with Iran, any number of things could throw the election to "anyone but Obama", even now.
Unfortunately, that is true. No one stops to consider the outside or global forces that have to be confronted, which cannot be ignored and which have to be dealt with. If people are so concerned about Iran, which they have been for years, maybe Bush should have declared war on Iran instead of Iraq.
Change presidents in the middle of a war with Iran? I don't think so.
No, silly, change Presidents so that we can have one. Iran pops an October Surprise and everyone falls all over themselves voting to keep the Apologizer in Chief from letting them off the hook.
Or so the storyboard in Party Hindquarters goes.
I cannot wait to see how Mitt's campaign is going to spin the "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" angle while also going after Santorum. I think this may be The Flip-Flop to end all flip-flops.
Santorum is honestly the only candidate who truly has the qualities the rights 'says' they want out of their candidate. I respect his honesty, his consistency, he practices what he preaches, etc. Now I disagree with ALL of his positions, but he is at least true to them. If the right is going for a candidate to spread the word of what they really stand for Santorum is their guy. What this will ultimately mean is everyone who is not firmly cemented on the right will be pushed back left. All the independents who were unhappy with Obama and would have voted Republican will slink away from an 'extremist'. Going with Romney will keep some of the independents in their court but will mean they have to give up on some of their 'extremism' which they have convinced themselves actually seems 'normal'. The longer Santorum stays in, even if he doesn't win, works to the left's advantage. In order to recapture the votes from Santorum Romney will have to dabble in the extreme views he's for the most part steered clear of. When he does that the independents, who were going to vote for him, will hesitate and increasingly see that Romney only does what works best for Romney....
Santorum does not practice what he preaches - his wife did not miscarry their baby, she had to abort. I'm pro-choice, so I have no issue around the abortion itself. What I do take issue with is the hypocrisy of his going after abortion when his own wife had to abort their child. Not cool. That's not even to get started on his uber-radical stance on contraception and all his bigotry...
Isn't bigotry and hypocrisy a core value of Republicans?
Touché. :)
I was under the impression that they were aware of their three year old child's condition before she was born and instead of aborting, she's been subject to suffering all this time. Maybe, I don't have this straight.
There is ambiguity as to what really happened with Gabriel, the baby that they lost. The prevalent story is that Karen had an infection and had to induce labor before the baby was ready to be born. Is it literally abortion? Perhaps not; but according to the pro-lifers, this could fall under their broad definition of abortion, and more specifically, partial birth abortion.
Here's an article about the "ambiguity" around the issue: http://www.salon.com/2012/01/06/karen_santorum_did_not_have_an_abortion/
Abortion, yes. It was a medically induced termination of a pregnancy prior to viability. It was not "partial birth" in any sense -- look up the definition. It was, simply, a late-stage abortion for the only reason that any obstetrician will do one: out of medical necessity. Very much contrary to the Insane Right's myths about women eight a few weeks from term deciding to abort out of a whim or convenience.
Pro-life purists stay that way right up to the point they are raped, have a teenage daughter become pregnant or their life is endangered. Then as soon as they have their 15 minutes of pro-choice they return to their original position. Only difference now is they get to add an extra dose of hypocrisy to their stance. Oh wait, I guess they do get a free pass since they didn't have a "Yeah it's abortion day" party or a "Time to kill another baby" parade into the clinic. I mean that is the way pro-choice advocates do things right?
I'll never get to have an abortion so I'll never have an abortion day party.
kri kri
D.C. Sessions: I agree with you. I didn't mean to say that I thought it could be considered a partial birth abortion, I was just saying that induced termination in right-wing rhetoric can become partial birth abortion. Sorry for the confusion. :)
I have Country Club Republican friends here in the UP of Michigan who are voting for Santorim JUST because he is Catholic.....I guess he's just that nice little Catholic Boy Next Door. How he stands on foreign policy and the deficit - does not seem to matter as much. Amazing. Its so ironic how religion has pervaded GOP politics this year. Decades ago - when Geo. Romney was our Gov NO ONE cared he was a Mormon....I remember him as Gov when I was a kid and I did not even remember that about him....Still think Obama can take either of them if they continue to make this all about moral issues. And yeah - Michigan also remembers what Mitt said about the bail outs of the auto industry. So I bet they vote for the sweater vest instead. Crazy.
What happened, in the past, Catholics did not have electibility with the exception of Kennedy. It amazes me how reps can present themselves as the moral compass of this nation when they had front runners like Cain and Gingrich.
I live in Michigan. I am about as liberal as one could get in terms of my politics and how I vote. This is what I am urging every Democrat and Independent voter in the state to do: Cross party aisles in the primary, request a Republitard ballot, and vote for one candidate...and one candidate only - Vote for Ron Paul!
I like Ron Paul but his ideology is so unrealistic. Sounds ideal, but could never happen. I am so tired of hearing about what our founding fathers proposed, the question is, what do we want for the 21st. century.
@Marlana666
I like to joke that I am a libertarian philosophically, but a liberal practically. Libertarianism, like communism, requires that markets and people work in ideal ways that are moral and upright and proper. Not that I'm a huge pessimist, but the reason why these ideologies fail when we put them into practice is precisely because they were made for a utopic world and not the one we actually live in. Unfortunately the world that we live in is one in which many, many people are motivated by selfish, immoral, improper ideals/beliefs/behaviors. There is a reason why Ayn Rand was an author and not a politician. What is weirdest to me, though, is that people are so willing to throw out communism on the basis of it's utopic understanding of the world, but they will not allow themselves to recognize that libertarianism is essentially the same thing (just, you know, w/ free market aspects instead of governmental ownership aspects).
While I agree with MUCH of what Mr. Paul says, as do many Americans I would assume, I can't get with any candidate who is all about individual liberty except when it comes to women's issues. If he were to change his view on the front, I would probably have to vote for him but that is just unacceptable. Also, we cannot go back to the gold standard! It is a great idea in theory but virtually unobtainable.
Saint-torum will never be the nominee. Mitt either. It will just be a mess come convention time, and the Repugnitives will trot out another Bush or the 'Fat Cat' Republican from NJ. Although I do think a Saint-torum/Palin ticket would be a hoot!
Rick Santorum/Christine O'Donnell? :)
That would work -- but only since she's not a witch.
I have a hard time believing anyone from Michigan would vote for Romney. The man who said "Let Detroit go bankrupt" and who now says to people loosing their homes to foreclosure should "not fight it...let the banks take it so corporations can buy them up and rent them back to you"?????? That makes me physically ill just to repeat it.
From where he's sitting, he probably thought he was being nice. If you lose your home you can always rent it out from the slumlord that bought it. Sounds like being nice to one of the "great unwashed". How could you be unhappy for a mere twice as much as your mortgage used to be, you too can rent your old house.
So is this essentially a religious vote- Catholic versus Mormon? Who do they hate the most?
You may have just explained why the Base will eventually pick Ron Paul: the other three aren't Real Christians.
Romney could also talk about Santorim's residency in Pennsylvania and how he got the free charter school education for his kids by lying... Do a google search and check it out. I did when he first started coming into the limelight as I had never heard of him.. Hopefully the right keeps arguing and swinging ever further right and we can get the independents and moderates to come our way... Here's to Obama in 12!! Glad to have a president I'm really proud of,...
So who gets the Michigan Militia vote?
"Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support."
Santorum continues to baffle the pundits on the left and be ignored on the right because the do not understand the appeal of an extreme fundamentalist Christian during times of trial and uncertainty. People want someone to make sense of the world for them and frame it in a familiar context. Santorum satisfies the need among conservative Christians to come back into line with God's teachings and the world will be set right once more. Amen and thank you Jesus.
And while it is extremely distasteful to say this, the conservative base of the Republican Party will not elect a Mormon for president, not even a "Jack" Mormon like Romney. To understand this one must understand that states like Missouri only recently (1976) rescinded Executive Order 44 known as the "Extermination Order," wherein local militia had grounds to shoot a Mormon on site.
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extermination_Order_(Mormonism)]
And Mormons are still viewed with general distrust or uncertainty among conservative Christian circles. Disagree? I suggest you have a frank discussion with a Christian minister regarding Mormon scripture (not just the Book of Mormon, but also the Doctrine and Covenants and Pearl of Great Price -- all canon scripture in the Church), temple work and covenants, having a living breathing Prophet of God, and a Quorum of Apostles in Salt Lake City, or any of the dozen or more other reasons why while espousing real Christian values, Mormons are not "Christian" in the sense of conventional thinking; their religion being far more sophisticated and their commitments far more elaborate and complex. This sort of thing is unfamiliar and alien to someone who believes that it is only necessary to take Jesus in your heart to be saved.
So we see, there is still a great deal of mistrust among the fundamentalist base of the GOP and Mormonism. Other than Romney's amazing degree of political alacrity in flip flopping on virtually every issue, the fact that on the most fundamental level his faith represents something completely alien to most Christians, at the very least, to being a threat or threatening to their ecclesiastical world view at the the worst. I believe this is the core behind why the anti-Romney is forever being sought within the ranks of the GOP. It is also why like a small child in need of comfort, the conservative Christian base is running to brother Santorum to be assured that Christian values will not only be believed but lived in the White House.
Keep an eye on Rick Santorum. I have a strong feeling he is far from finished.
And to my friends on the left (I consider myself a centrist) don't think because everyone whom you know does not believe a right wing Christian fundamentalist can beat Obama, think again. Look at the world in general and observe the constant flow toward increasingly fundamentalist views within political circles all over the globe and their attendant and ever increasingly restrictive regulations and laws being brought into consideration (I think of the current battle over a woman's right to contraception, something Santorum would see denied). His increasingly favorable state in both polls and caucus/primaries is indicative that what was once believed to be a Santorum surge (that phrase still make me grin wildly ... Google him ... PLEASE ) may now be turning into the Santorum wave (and the imagination immediately goes South Park-esque).
Joking aside ... his success is indicative of a far greater illness within our country. This polarization has made it impossible for our political system to function, and this, because people on the left do not understand (REALLY understand) the world view of those on the far right (or claiming to represent the far right). For them, many of them, this is not about winning a fight for now, but a fight for God that is an eternal struggle against evil for the souls of men. Sound melodramatic, not from the standpoint of any Christian believing in the rapture, the second coming, the gathering of Israel, the miracles of Jesus his atonement and resurrection, or the inerrancy of scripture. This is Rick Santorum's base, his people, and he wants to save all the rest of us from ourselves.
Believe it.
Should Santorum be elected ... we will all be in for a real education.
For the record, I am still calling it Santorum/[Jeb]Bush for the GOP nomination. I would be DELIGHTED to be wrong.
Your analysis neglects the fact that many on the left grew up in those Real Christian households and still have conservative religious relatives. I wouldn't be so quick to assume liberals are "baffled" by Santorum...a lot of us probably have a Santorum-esque uncle to deal with every family holiday. However, I would agree that it's vital not to underestimate the the degree to which conservative christians long for certainty and authority in their leadership.
Elf and MechTrech -- Your posts rang true with me and opened my mind up to a new way of thinking. I was puzzled as to why Santorum would have any kind of a following among rational people - and your posts have now given me a different viewpoint. Thank you!
HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Can you say LEAST favorite son???
HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The GOP is going to freak out. Jeb Bushs phone will go into over load !
The GOP is currently stuck with theocracy as their only issue to fire up the fringe of their base - the rest of their base has lost interest. "Trickle-down" is a dead economic position. Palin and (horror-of-horrors) another Bush are both non-starters. The GOP should write off 2012 and save their money for 2016. But they won't - their backers have billions to burn, stolen from the rest of us.
There's no chance that Santorum will win. The Republican power brokers know what a disaster that would be. They've already rigged the vote in Romney's favor. The "election" is just a formality.