Rick Santorum spent much of 2011 as an electoral afterthought, struggling to compete in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. He enjoyed a brief surge in support in early January, when the former senator managed to eke out a win in the Iowa caucuses, but it soon subsided.
The GOP race has, however, changed quite a bit over the last 10 days. As hard as it may be to believe, a Public Policy Polling survey released over the weekend showed Santorum not only leading the Republican field, but ahead by a double-digit margin.
Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.
Part of the reason for Santorum's surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney's favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31).
In a hypothetical one-on-one race, PPP shows Santorum leading Romney 50% to 28%. Obviously, when the ostensible frontrunner is trailing this badly in mid-February, there's a problem.
The latest Gallup tracking poll still shows Romney ahead, but his lead over Santorum has shrunk from 20 to 7 points since the beginning of the month. Indeed, Santorum's support hasn't been this high in a Gallup poll since the race began. (In this image, Romney is the gray line, Santorum is the dark green line, and Gingrich is the orange line.)
Gallup
What's more, in a rather striking move, a new National Review editorial, released this morning, suggests Gingrich should withdraw in order to give Santorum a stronger shot against Romney.
Despite all of this, the odds of a Romney nomination are still quite good, thanks to his massive financial advantage, and the fact that Gingrich appears likely to stay in the race, which will divide the anti-Romney vote in the coming months. That said, between the polls, last week's defeats, Romney's awful unfavorability ratings, and unease within the Republican establishment, if the Romney camp isn't feeling nervous, it's not paying close enough attention.
The former governor's campaign has been here before, and beat back the Gingrich challenge by spending heavily to destroy the former Speaker. Since the Romney campaign tends to have a playbook with only one page, the onslaught against Santorum will likely begin any minute now.
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Assaulting Santorum is going to be tricky for Romney, because Santorum = the right wing base.
Get ready for the theocracy.
Don't bet on it. Santorum really believes all that crap about contraception just being "a license to do things." You can't win an election without women, and most women have used some form of contraception at some point in their lives. And for plenty of women it's just simply necessary medicine. It's not a controversial thing, except for a tiny reactionary fringe that hasn't yet realized that contraception is the status quo. If Santorum wins the nomination and pushes his anti-contraception nonsense during the general (and why wouldn't he as a true believer), then he's electoral toast. We may possibly have crossed the point where culture-war issues no longer benefit Republicans.
The Republicans are out to restrict voting as much as possible come the general and were able to jerrymander the state to their own benefit in the wake of the census. There is a whole lot of rat-**cking going on. Don't count on the will of the general populace getting their say.
Instead, expect socio-economic apartheid and a whole lot of unrest.
And don't count on the Republicans not throwing enough **** in the game to get the results they want. Including a Santorum win. Just because something is megalithically stupid doesn't mean it won't happen.
While I take your point, women constitute a little bit more than 50% of the electorate. Republican efforts to disenfranchise people are not going to be quite that effective. When the Republicans were trying to make the contraception issue a freedom-of-religion issue, women were in opposition to that position by about 60%. But now the Republicans have abandoned that pretense and are now broadening the attack to allowing any employer to deny any kind of insurance to anyone for any reason. Take away the fake concern about religion, and I expect the opposition of women to Republican policies will shoot well past 60%.
Women are getting repeated lessons in just how little Republicans think of them. I would actually be very happy for Santorum to win the nomination. Democrats could just run the "license to do things" comment on a loop to keep the lessons fresh. On the subject of women's health and women's rights, the Republicans are only rat-@!$%#ing themselves.
Monk, you almost give me hope. I certainly hope you are right.
Me, too. To be honest, there's an element of keeping my morale up in these arguments. The onslaught from the right is so relentless.
Just praise the Lord and stockpile the ammo, its gonna get FUN off in here!
Yes, Monk, they are indeed relentless, and in too many ways it's sinful that tenacity is rarely put to constructive use. But having lived through the eras of Bombingham and Montgomery, lynch mobs and America's very own legalized apartheid, only to witness the Civil Rights Act signed into law in 1964 after much struggle and needless death, I can assure you that evil ALWAYS fails in the end. And you know what? They're running scared because they know it too. NEVER lose hope :)
And having seen all of that good work rot in the fields after the Reagan Aministration, I can't help but dispair.
Actually, Romney is the dark blue. Huntsman is the gray.
Santorum is just the flavor of the week for the GOP. Don't they all get a turn at that?
Even someone who's name on the internets is synonymous with...well...Santorum. When desperate, you scrape up what's at the bottom of the barrel.
Dan Savage's stunt did a good job of protecting us from a new impending Dark Age, represented by Santorum, but not forever. That levy has just been breached.
Dark age is right. I just read in Krugman's NYT column that Santorum is defending THE CRUSADES!
If Santorum has one liability, it's that the POG sees him as weak on foreign policy. This is a step in correcting that.
Santorum on Women's Rights: Why, Biblical Law, naturally!
Santorum on the Constitution: Must I humor you? (oh, yeah, I guess so ... I'm running for President.) Biblical Law!
Santorum on U.S. Foreign Policy: Biblical Law, of course!
Santorum on Environmental Policy: The Rapture!
Santorum:
By golly it is sure nice to be here! Now somebody give me a nuclear reactor and some cables 'cause we are gonna JUMP START THE APOCALYPSE!
I'd really appreciate it if someone could expedite the retirement of the phrase "Santorum Surge"... There are ladies about, for pete's sake!!
A new form of contraception has emerged ---the santorum threat!
Could be worse. At least with his new poling numbers no one is going to be talking about a Santorum surge "from behind". But be on the lookout for speculation that Santorum may get on top of Romney in upcoming primary states. Eww.
I have not had this much fun watching the Republicans agonize over an election since since 1976. The only thing that would make this election more entertaining is a sex scandal.
Another sex scandal or just a current one? We've already had Cain and Gingrich and to a lesser extent Bachmann (the revelation that her husband turns gay men straight, presumably by hitting on them).
All of that was in the past though.
We need a new one with Romney or Santorum. I would take one even with Boehner or McConnell.
Oh ruin my day Mike- McConnell and sex in the same sentence has just made me gag.
In Washington, staying faithful to your wife (the same one, no less!) for decades is scandalous.
If fidelity is scandalous, then Obama is in big trouble.
Why is it dark green? I thought Santorum was brown?
Brown and frothy.
The Santorum SURGE, as opposed to The Santorum Climacterium.
The Republican base dosen't like Romney because they don't trust him. When he ran against Ted Kennedy he was a moderate leaning toward progressive, passing Romneycare. In the last presidential primary he didn't know where to be and now sensing the parties surge to the right that's where he plants his feet. He is a true master of disguise. If he buys the nomination the only question is,( the only way he will get it) which face he will wear in the general election. The longer this primary fight goes the more it's pushing him rightward to compete. The problem is Santorum is the real conservative, so Mitt has to find a way to land on the right side of him, and the true base knows he's a phony. Not a good time to be Mitt.
Santorum surging? Very gross thought!
Thanks! I was afraid I was the only pervert here.
It's clear the party has no clear direction. It's what happens when the focus is upon tearing down the other guy. The primary looks like a try-before-you-buy bazaar (bizarre.) At this rate, there's hope for Paul yet...............
This is what happens when they try to please their base of religious kooks, corporations,Birchers and of course Klansmen. Ain't that a heck of a combination?
We are in need of a more potent word to describe these theatrics. Absurb is too mundane and ridiculus falls short.
Hey Paul, try severe
Ya know, seriously. Rick Santorum for president- it is all too embarrassing. This country is beginning to look retarded. Do we want a Pope or president?
Think "Rick the Lion Hearted"
History has it that Richard the Lion Hearted was gay!!! No matter, I don't want a Christian Crusader running the country either.
And thus all the more determined to prove his loyalty to the Church. Especially if it involved sticking something long and hard into other men. Or maybe just picking up where the Church left off several centuries ago.
I mean it D.C. if Santorum gets anywhere near the White House I will flee to Canada. I won't live in a theocracy. A plutocracy is bad enough.
Check today's Gallup poll on the GOP race -- Mitt's lead over Ricky is down to 2 points. Mitt can feel it slipping away again, and Ricky is about to get hit with a severe surge of something nasty.
If by "Surge" you mean spouting crap all over the place, then yes, little Ricky is surging.
he's like a septic tank - full of sh it and the pieces float
Ick. Thought I had mistakenly opened a right-wing blog there for a moment.