Since we discussed Congress' dwindling public support in the latest Gallup poll, it's only fair to note the same pollster shows an uptick in President Obama's approval rating.
In Gallup's latest tracking poll, Obama's support has reached 49%. At least for now, the president's support is no longer "under water" -- approval is no longer lower than disapproval -- and Obama's overall standing is now at its highest point since the strike on Osama bin Laden.
Jonathan Bernstein had a good piece putting the latest results in context.
There's no magic number for where approval has to be for him to be assured of re-election, but generally people estimate that 48% or so approval is probably around the break-even mark, and a low 50s rating makes re-election very likely.
Keeping in mind the caveat that things can always turn around as events change, Obama's approval pattern looks somewhat similar, if not quite as good, as those of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, with approval moving into positive territory early in the re-election year. The direction is what counts.
What's more, it looks as if Obama is now on the verge of doing better than the two most recent presidents who weren't reelected -- George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter -- were faring at this point in their first terms.
I'd add one related thought. When the new Gallup numbers are released daily, I take note of the numbers for Obama and the Republican presidential candidates, but I also pay attention to the "U.S. Economic Confidence Index," reflecting whether Americans believe the economy is improving or deteriorating. Yesterday's Gallup report showed this figure reaching its best point in a year.
The president's growing support, in other words, isn't an accident -- as Americans' feelings about the economy improve, this clearly affects their attitudes about the president.
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I appreciate that Americans are "feeling good" regarding the economy and the President, and not to put a damper on things but just want to make sure that it translates into VOTES for the President come November 2012!!
Yes, there is a do nothing but whine & obstruct Congress, and Mo, Larry, & Curly are running to replace him - but really Mo, Larry, & Curly, really?!?! I mean it didn't go well at all with Darth Cheney & his side-kick version of "Charlie McCarthy" - wake up sheeple, keep out the rethugnikans come 2012!! A vote for rethugnikans is a vote against US!!
Yup, sad to say it still about the money. Those who have vs. those who have not.
That good enough for me, Im not going to vote out of guilt about being white. I think the majority of white independents feel this way. So a vote for Dums is also a vote against the USA.
Name calling. Is that all you have to contribute? Really?
seriously, what?
Well, well, this is the latest attempt of the Conservative wrong??? Now don't attack our legally elected President, shame the caucasian voters into voting color rather than issues? What a hoot! I have serious news for you, so hang on to your keyboard.
Ready?
It has been around 20 years ago that the Civil Rights Act finally said that all men (women and children) were created equal and that this country was finally going to accept that fact and defend it for the good of our country. Since that time most educated, intelligent, compassionate and real people in our country have embraced that fact and made sincere changes in our country to overcome 200 years of shameful treatment of our brothers and sisters of color, race, religion, sex and all the divisions of the past. We have moved on.
Unfortunately there are those who not only still haven't caught up, but who still try to drag their prejudice into any issue. I imagine you think that like you "the majority off independents" think like you, because you have hidden your ability to learn under the bed so you don't have to give up your fallacious white power belief.
Here it comes . . .
You are wrong. Most of us have moved far, far beyond your anti-human beliefs. You are now so far behind rational, thinking, educated people that whether you can wise up and get the message is doubtful. Thank God there are less and less of you every day and one day we will really fulfill our inclusive drive.
Now for the benefit of my friend Meddling Mike, if that was sarcasm, it is too bad. There is sarcasm that is out of line because it promotes the negative without announcing its intent. This is especailly true in the written word as there is no tone of voice, smile on the face or other indication of the sarcasm than the written word. For those who choose to be sarcastic, note it as such. There are those of us who feel the real need of defending ourselves and others like us that we will stand up. I am truly sorry for my lack of that ability of interpretation, but I don't think that all of us "get" the sarcastic tone, unless it is specified. Especially with the number of trolls on the site that purposely write such garbage because they believe it is true.
Sorry, the Civil Rights Act was 40 years ago.
Save your breath, gramapoetmn. Having waded through the muck and mire of what constitutes its past posts here and elsewhere, I'm convinced this one offers little or no hope of rehabilitation. Regretully, sometimes it just be's like that.
trolldar bingo hit at #3
When I look at the graph why do I think of Don Knotts?
Mr. Benen, what info do you have on the rumored "compromise"? Word is the White House did capitulate to some degree.
well for me i hope he spend about two paragraphs and we move on to the improving (all be it slow guess that's the BUT) economy and see how the republicans are trying to slow it down obstruct and or out right sabotage the recovery.
this other stuff oh be it i guess important for some is just a distraction or misdirection move. IMHO
If you mean on birth control, the 'compromise' is that the INSURERS have to provide contraception coverage free of charge, but the religious institution providing the insurance for their employees et al won't have to pay for it.
What will they be able to say about it then? Looks like Obama outfoxed them again!
Rachel's last lin here says it all---now that they have proof of his accomplishments, their faith in him as a president is restored. Good to know.
This issue of having Church leaders of a specific Church influence our government does indeed affect over religions in America. We have already seen the affects of hatred, when Bush used religion to control people and how the Republicans now are using religion for their own personal self gain. This is one of the very fundamental things that does destroy our Democracy, where it is the people who are suppose to choose their own personal freedom of religion without the influence of church leaders that can and do wheeled power upon all people. The Catholic Church is also one of those church’s that has used their power for their own self gain over the very issue of child abuse and had nothing to do with their religious beliefs, except to avoid from going to prison for crimes they have committed. People had better start thinking a little more carefully over this, because it is “We the People” who decide what is to be done in America and not a church. People also forget what Jesus said about the Good Samaritan who was of a different religious belief that the Good Samaritan can be better than a person in your own faith.
The best thing that could happen is for the House to refuse to extend the payroll tax. Maybe another hostage situation with the Tea Party too just before Congress recesses for summer. Then they can go back to their constituents and say they are doing what the voters want. This will do wonders for public opinion on Republicans, just not the way they want.
Maybe I'm some sort of naive Obama hopey-dopey groupie or something, but I've never attributed the sorry state of the economy to anything other than the 'Publicans and there pro-rich/corporations policies. Obama could have sat in a corner with his tongue cut out for the past four years, and as long his muted self would have been the last stand against the GOP absolute takeover he would have had my vote. These 'Publicans haven't changed their stripes since November 2008 except by dropping the charade that their "compassionate".
Steve, you have the best graphs!
Congress's numbers went up 1% from the last poll. Hold on...the wind is shifting...choke
I can see this as indicating some sucess in President Obama's efforts to frame the election as choice betweeen the GOP Do Nothing Congress and the Presidents unceasing efforts to help the middle class.
If the election is framed in those terms the GOP is decimated.
2/20/2012 - Now it's back to normal. 44% approve and 48% disapprove... Wait until the revised unemployment numbers come out... there are hundreds of major retail stores closing their doors this year alone and prior to the election. We just aren't creating enough jobs to keep up with the people that aren't working.
Remember there are 5 million people who are not even being counted against the current unemployment numbers. You can sweep statistics under the carpet,but you can't sweep people under the carpet and these people need jobs.
Never pin you hopes on ratings of this type, it always bites you in the ass.