While votes were still being tallied last night, the New York Times' Micah Cohen set the turnout benchmarks for the three contests by pointing to the 2008 numbers:
Associated Press
Here are the turnout numbers for Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri from 2008 (delegates were actually at stake in Missouri's 2008 primary, while this year's primary is non-binding, so the comparison isn't really fair):
Minnesota caucus - 62,828
Colorado caucus - 70,229
Missouri primary - 588,844
So, what were the totals last night? In Minnesota, with nearly all of the precincts reporting, 47,826 Republicans participated in the caucuses, down about 23% from four years ago.
In Colorado, with all of the precincts reporting, 65,479 GOP voters showed up, a drop of nearly 7% from the 2008 totals.
And in Missouri's non-binding primary, with all of the precincts reporting, turnout stood at 251,868. That's quite a few for a primary dismissed as a "beauty pageant," though as Cohen noted, the comparison is admittedly flawed.
Nevertheless, we can start to take some larger lessons away from the larger trajectory. For one thing, none of this makes Mitt Romney look especially impressive -- he's losing states he won four years ago; he's struggling to get his supporters to participate; and he's failing badly to match his 2008 vote totals at this stage in the process. It's starting to look like Romney only wins when he spends several million dollars on attack ads to destroy his main challenger.
For another, this is part of a pattern. As was reported on "The Rachel Maddow Show" on Monday night, if we look just at self-identifying Republicans in the exit polls, turnout dropped 11% in Iowa, 15% in New Hampshire, and 16% in Florida. Though turnout in South Carolina was strong, it's proving to be the exception, as evidenced by additional weak numbers in Nevada and in yesterday's contests.
To reiterate a point from the weekend, this is not at all what Republican leaders anticipated. On the contrary, GOP officials in the states and at the national level assumed the exact opposite would happen.
Remember, Republican turnout was supposed to soar in these early contests because of the larger circumstances.
GOP voters are reportedly eager, if not foaming-at-the-mouth desperate, to fight a crusade against President Obama, and they had plenty of high-profile candidates trying to stoke their enthusiasm.
This, coupled with the boost from the so-called Tea Party "movement," suggested energized Republicans would turn out in numbers that far exceeded the totals we saw in 2008, when GOP voters were depressed and it was Democrats who enjoyed the bulk of the excitement.
But in nearly all of the contests thus far, that hasn't happened.
The last thing party leaders wanted to see was evidence of a listless, uninspired party, underwhelmed by their field of candidates. Republicans probably won't fret publicly, but the turnout numbers should give party leaders pause.
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Obviously, this must be a misleading report! With the awe-inspiring selection of candidates for the republican nomination, surely the turnout must be up about 200%.
And then, with the repuknican base hatred of Obama, turnout must be up about 400%.
It's gotta be tough for the "base", they're in between "boulders & the cliff edge"!! So maybe they'll just sit this one out!!!
Well, they brought it on themselves... Sucks to them. Better luck in 2016.
When does the inevitable candidate start inevitably winning?
Apparently it is not just the "Party Leaders" who have written off 2012. . .
2012 has not been written off by the funding wing of the repuke party!
They still have two options working in their favor.
Option 1) They pump enough money into the election to buy it for their 1/10th of 1%er candidate Mittens.
Option 2) They use the election loss as a training session in preparation for buying the 'selection' of Jeb Bush in 2016.
Either way, the funding wing reasserts their control of the republican party. The wealthy should not have great worries about a 2nd Obama term. Even if Obama's progressive attitude is more than just a campaign ploy to fool the progressive base, the wealthy own enough DINO senators to assure that nothing severely damaging to their interests is passed.
Somewhere, off in some smoke filled casino, William Bennett is yelling,"Where's the enthusiasm?"
A friend in Minneapolis attended the Democratic party (DFL) caucus last night, which was held in the same school building as the GOP caucus. He emailed a number of people after getting home that there were roughly twice as many Democrats caucusing as there were Republicans - and there was no contest on the DFL side. And, no, he and his wife don't life around the university or in a blue collar area; it's solidly middle class filled with a lot of church goers and people who work at whatever for a living.
Where's the enthusiasm? When there's a black socialist Kenyan on the ticket, we'll see some enthusiasm. Until then, this mirror mirror on the wall nominating contest is just an unpleasant self reflection experience for the GOP base, and they don't do self-reflection. But conservatives no doubt are having a hard time eating their peas and carrots before dessert.
As evidenced by the Iraq War before Afghanistan was even half done.
Not to be All Mr. Whiny McCrankypants, but I don't know if a lack of enthusiasm in the primary/caucus phase means Republicans will be staying home on Election Day. An unenthusiastic vote means just as much as a super-psyched vote. Wingers could be "looking forward" to Election Day the same way dog owners look forward to that final drive to the vet with 15 year old can't hold his water any more Sparky - "it's gonna suck, but you do what you gotta do."
Besides, thanks to Citizens United, inspiring your base to get out the vote is SO 2008. Now it's all about suppressing and depressing the other guys so they either can't vote, or don't want to vote. A billion dollars of Kenyan Muslim ain't-born-here Marxist business-hating bailout-loving grandma-killing anti-Obama ads could persuade a bunch of people to just not vote at all. And that's how Republicans win.
Sure as hell hope I'm wrong. Thus far, the polls seem to indicate I am wrong, but those anti-Obama ads haven't come out in full force yet, as the GOP candidates and their completely independent superPACS are too busy attacking each other to go out in full force against Obama yet. To quote Asia, only time will tell.
One good thing about the Citizens United ruling, there'd gonna be a lot of business for people who can produce political ads. At last: Republicans are responsible for job creation! And through the free market no less!
My, Slappy, what a bleak outlook you have.
Definitely agree that the sucky GOP primary turnout doesn't necessarily preclude the base from getting happy in the pants come November. I think it'll only take the conclusion of the GOP's Last-Man-Standing nomination process, when they'll actually identify their nominee, for their peeps to get ramped up.
Actually in 2008, I wasn't particularly excited about Obama until he actually won the Democratic Party's nomination that Summer. So, yes, I admitted it. Someone can revoke my Obama Groupie Card for ten minutes. Then I want it back.
I think you've got it backwards, Steve. They're on fire to vote against President Obama. They just don't want to vote for Gov. Romney. Low turnout during the primary season, in this case, is at best a weak predictor for the general -- moreso for the Republicans, who are by nature more authoritarian and likely to "fall in line" with whomever gets the nod.
Last nite as I watched Santorum speaking after his wins, I remember something I heard him say some months ago. He said he had no problem with striking Iran. Things are different since he made that statement. I am afraid tho that he still means what he said. He might have had a great night last nite, but he would have to have the same response in all the states to follow. I dont expect that will happen. Romneys sock in the belly last nite has to have been a huge disappointment. I dont think the newt has a chance at all. I pray he doesnt. Back to Santorum. I believe that he is a far far right religious zealot who we do not need in office. I will continue to look for the speech where he made the statement about striking Iran. I believe that His religious beliefs make him feel he has the right to attack Iran, and that is a very scary thought.
On foreign policy Romney and Santorum are both on the same page...and Buddha knows what is rattling around in Newt's head.
There are the seeds of disaster in every Republican candidate.
But all the same, I am working on a blog post should Santorum gain traction.
about minnesota, what you don't seem to realize is that pawlenty is seen as a wuss, and coleman is, well, a dick.
I'm not sure this really means anything special for Santorum or devastating for Romney. Could it be that Romney supporters stayed home preferring to wait and cast a vote in a contest that really matters in terms of delegate selection? If so, Santorum may have won symbolic votes as the "anti-Romney" but when the conferences and caucuses that really do apportion delegates will these wins hold up? I'm not so sure. Yes, it is embarrassing for Romney to be "hat tricked" like this. But I don't think this necessarily portends a new Santorum surge. My guess is that, after Super Tuesday, Santorum will be left in the dust in terms of delegate count.
Yes, there is an enthusiasm gap. But what I think we're also seeing is that the alleged populist anger of the Tea Party really was nothing more than warmed over Christian Coalition voters being buoyed by astroturf PACs. Many moderates are put off by their taking us to the brink so many times with their intransigence and by their dogged focus on social issues instead of the economy and jobs. So they seem to be staying home. As a result, the GOP plan to do anything to keep Obama as a one term president seems to be backfiring. The overwhelming majority of people want elected leaders to govern and not to knee-jerk vote against something just because the President is for it. That is what should have the GOP freaking out right now.
Santorum winning all three is interesting. He's a wing nut, no doubt about it. Any of the three, Santorum, Gingrich or Romney are all people with serious baggage.
Gingrich is the leader - a censured house speaker who paid over $300K in fines
Santorum - there's the google issue, and then there's also his rabid Catholicism. That won't play well in the general.
Romney - The mormon thing looms large. And he is a world class waffler.
The Republican primary season is turning out to be far more entertaining than I had thought possible. My enthusiasm as a spectator is up at least 100%.
Romney will be the candidate. It's in the bag, bought and paid for. Republicans have been on this track for decades. What they did not count on was a brilliant black man like our President staffing himself with some of the sharpest political minds ever, and winning an unwinable election, throwing a kink in the tracks, and creating a reactionary ineffectual Tea Party. He won the hearts and minds of an educated generation who began this fight for change 45 years ago.
I refuse to believe that incessant attack ads will sway the democratic party base. I do believe that attack ads will reach a critical mass thereby creating the exact opposite reaction from informed voters, as the Republican juggernaut implodes.
I maintain this lofty prediction as belief at this time, because the facts of this most historical election will be a long time comin'.
Mazel tov to Rachel on the Steinbeck award. We all "kvell" with pride at this honor. Wish I could be in San Jose to rejoice. Keep up your good & important work.
Mazel tov to Rachel on the Steinbeck award. Wish I could be in San Jose to "kvell" when she receives this well meritted honor
Amen!
Michigan is not going to be a gimme for Romney this time around. Between 2008 and now, Romney has shifted sharply to the right and advocated against the auto industry bailouts. The memory of his moderate father (Michigan's former governor) has faded from people's minds. Add that to the fact that the Republican Primary is open to all voters and the Democrats have nothing to vote for on their side, you can count on a lot of crossover trouble making. I'll take Santorum or Newt with a narrow victory over Romney.
I keep saying, there has to be some kind of conspiracy to throw the election to Obama. There is no other explanation for what is happening. If someone had written a novel describing this year's nominating race so far, it would have been laughed out of every agent's office in the business. Nobody would believe that a major political party would be running such a group of clowns. And the GOP engaging in circular firing squads??? The party that invented message discipline? The party of Reagan's 11th Commandment ("Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican")? It all seems like some kind of bad joke.