They lack the high-profile drama of January's contests, but Republicans in three states will weigh in today as part of the GOP's presidential nominating process. Minnesota and Colorado will hold their caucuses today, and Missouri will host a non-binding primary (a separate caucus for choosing delegates will be held next month).
So, do today's contests matter? They're clearly not generating the same kind of attention as the other recent races -- Tricia mentioned earlier that these three aren't exactly Super Tuesday -- but they still have the potential to influence the larger race. Today, for example, will tell us a great deal about whether Rick Santorum sticks around.
The former Pennsylvania senator managed to eke out a narrow win in Iowa a month ago, but has made very little noise since. That may soon change -- new results from Public Policy Polling shows Santorum leading the pack in Minnesota and Missouri, and a competitive second in Colorado.
Associated Press
Indeed, we can say with confidence that Santorum is likely to fare well today, if for no other reason than Mitt Romney's campaign saw fit to start attacking him again yesterday.
[O]n Monday, Mr. Romney's campaign began unloading criticism on Mr. Santorum, a rival who had largely escaped being the target of Mr. Romney's attack machine.
"Rick Santorum is a nice guy, but he is simply not ready to be president," wrote Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota and a top surrogate for Mr. Romney, in a statement Monday morning. [...]
That was followed by two e-mails from Mr. Romney's campaign: one titled "Rick Santorum: Proud Defender of Earmarks and Pork-Barrel Spending," and the other titled "A Summary of Santorum's False Attacks on Massachusetts Health Care."
There's never any mystery as to what the Romney campaign's internal polling says -- whomever they perceive as a threat at the time is the one facing Romney's attack operation. Since Santorum has gone from afterthought to target in recent days, it's clear the former senator is positioned to have a good day.
To a certain extent, he'll have to. Given the larger context, Santorum needs a reason to keep his campaign going, and a win or two today will provide that rationale. In fact, Santorum is likely to top Newt Gingrich in all three of today's contests (Gingrich isn't even on the ballot in Missouri).
In turn, the Republicans' nominating fight will continue in ways that Romney probably won't like.
Jonathan Bernstein had a persuasive take yesterday on the state of play.
The wrinkle tomorrow is that it's probably Rick Santorum's last stand, and Santorum ... is ultimately a bigger headache for Romney than Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul. So that means there is something at stake tomorrow after all: if Romney can sweep the three contests, it's hard to see Santorum continuing in the race, and that would be a big step towards the general election for Romney.
On the other hand, should Santorum have a good day, he'll stay in through Super Tuesday and it's even plausible that Romney will be forced to stay engaged well past the first week of March. And for Mitt, that could mean many more weeks of pandering to Republican primary voters.
Given the toll the process is taking on Romney's favorability ratings, a longer nominating fight isn't exactly the former governor's first choice.
Nate Silver was thinking along similar lines, highlighting Romney's problems in the Midwest, and making the case that Santorum is arguably "a more dangerous opponent for Mr. Romney than Mr. Gingrich at this point. He has run a more disciplined campaign than the former House speaker, has less personal baggage and is less disliked by party leaders."
Leave a Comment:
... has less personal baggage and is less disliked by party leaders.
Wow. What bragging rights.
Romney in particular could be playing with fire when he attacks Santorum. Unlike the unfaithful cad, Newt, Santorum is more sympathetic because of his family illnesses. His medieval mindset isn't that much in conflict with Republican values, and his policies don't distinguish him much from Romney. His biggest problem is that he's not a rock star, but Republicans love rich white victims, too.
Go Man on Dog Go!
Go Newt Go!
Go Ron Go!
It is inevitable that Mitten's money backers will buy the nomination for him. The longer the fight goes and the deeper that has to be reached into the big money pockets, the better it is for the American workers and Obama.
With the Koch brothers and their allies pledging at $100 Million for the defeat of
The American WorkersObama, it is also gratifying to hear that Obama has called for donations to Super-Pacs that will fight against the Kochs, Karl Rove, and the other big money would-be buyers of elections. The Citizens United Not Timid (C.U.N.T.) vs FEC ruling was a horrendous sell-out by the Supremes and Obama is right to continue to speak out against it. However, to not use the same rules as the repukes and their big money backers is akin to taking a set of brass knuckles to a gun fight!Newt or Man-on-Dog would be disastrous candidates for the repukes. Either of them would probably not be as disastrous a president as Romney for the workers of this country. And Mittens has the financial backing to buy this election.
No one has ever gone broke betting on the stupidity of the ameriKKKan sheeple herded into the voting booths!
Yup. And just imagine, in a few months, an anonymous SuperPAC ad showing an ordinary American family being invited to a test of the "have a beer with" quality of a Presidential candidate. On the way to meet him, a child asks "what does the President do?" and Mom says "he represents all of us, Honey."
They arrive at the address given and the doorman tells them, "Members only."
Not to mention, as a Mormon, Romney is not allowed to have a beer...
Yeah, so to make it candidate-neutral it's lunch or a picnic.
More like "day in the Moon." This is, after all, He Who May Not Be Googled.
Oops
More likely, in a Mitten's administration, the doorman will tell them "$10,000 entry fee".
Sorry about putting the comment in the wrong place -- moved it.
And, yeah, the price tag would be more explicit but for an ad two words with three syllables has a lot more punch.
Santorum has shown his true colors with his sympathetic support of big pharm in the face of kids dying of cancer. His disdain of women's rights should disqualify him from any significant national support I resent any attempt to legalize the religious wrongs agenda. Does any GOOP candidate follow national opinion polls, or just march in lock-step with their polarized base?
"Santorum is likely to fare well today, if for no other reason that Mitt Romney's campaign saw fit to start attacking him again yesterday."
It's sad that the Romney campaign does nothing but attack all the other candidates, one at a time. Never do you hear anything positive about Romney or what he would do if he were president (except "well I'll tell you what I WOULDN'T do, whatever Obama just did"). Is it any wonder his negatives are skyrocketing even as he nails down the Republican nomination decisively?
"Rick Santorum is a nice guy, but he is simply not ready to be president,"
Are any of them?
He ... has less personal baggage and is less disliked by party leaders."
It isn't too difficult to have less personal baggage than Newt, but Santorum comes pretty close. His radical, right wing, preVatican II beliefs are way beyond the pale for all but a small fragment of voters.