As the race for the Republican presidential nomination continues, Mitt Romney is confronted with some good news and some bad news. The good news is, he's the clear frontrunner who just racked up two more wins in Florida and Nevada by large margins.
The bad news is, the more voters see Romney, the less popular he becomes. Consider this tidbit from the new Washington Post/ABC News poll:
Overall, 55 percent of those who are closely following the campaign say they disapprove of what the GOP candidates have been saying. By better than 2 to 1, Americans say the more they learn about Romney, the less they like him. Even among Republicans, as many offer negative as positive assessments of him on this question.
Given the circumstances, it would appear the ongoing GOP race isn't doing the frontrunner any favors. Evidence of Romney's "likability problem" has been building in recent weeks, but these new results are just brutal -- the former governor and his campaign are gearing up for the general election phase, but find the public already souring on Romney's persona.
TPM recently published this chart showing Romney's favorable/unfavorable ratings. It's a little out of date -- it does not, for example, reflect the data from the new Post/ABC poll -- but it's hard to miss that spike in the red line, which points to Romney's unfavorable numbers.
TPM
Steve Kornacki recently noted, "[I]t's possible that Romney is simply experiencing the low point that practically every nominee goes through at some point in the primary process."
That may well be the case. It's also possible, though, that a national audience is getting its first good look at Mitt Romney -- his flip-flops, his layoff-driven riches, his out-of-touch gaffes -- and just doesn't find him appealing as a presidential candidate.
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Contrast the reaction to Romney with that in 2008 on the Democratic side: The more people got to know Obama and Clinton, the more they liked each of them. While I generally agree with Steve Kornacki, the fact is that while there are dips and leaps in any candidate's "likeability" rating, Romney's trend is clearly heading in the wrong direction.
I couldn't find it anywhere, but when the WaPo/ABC News poll article says...
"Overall, 55 percent of those who are closely following the campaign say they disapprove of what the GOP candidates have been saying"
...do they mention if who they're surveying are REPUBLICANS, or all Americans, or likely voters, or registered voters or...?
Because if it's 55% of Republicans, that means something huge, definitely. But if it's any other groups, what it could mean is that a large chunk of Republicans aren't paying close attention to the campaign thus far. Not that I would blame them, it's been a train wreck. But seeing how ostrich-like the GOP base can be, I wouldn't put it past them to be sticking their fingers in their ears and tra-la-laing, not only until the convention but all the way up to Election Day, only paying attention when the GOP convention is on the air because they know they'll hear all the anti-Obama crap they need to hear to stimulate the pleasure centers of their reptilian brains, then ignore everything until Election Day when they can pull a lever for not-Obama.
I'm not hoping that's what will happen, certainly. Only pointing out that the people who are paying attention to the GOP fustercluck aren't necessarily Republicans, and are thus more predisposed to reality, and not like the crap the candidates are peddling. Whereas the base isn't paying attention because for them it's just time to wait, wake me when it's Election Day so I can vote for Not-Obama, I'm tired of looking for a not-Romney, until then I don't want to know nothin' about nothin.' it's that sort of barely-paying-attention-span that allows dream candidates to emerge as frontrunners and disappear as laughingstocks (and in Newt's case, do it again) every 6 to 10 weeks.
"[I]t's possible that Romney is simply experiencing the low point that practically every nominee goes through at some point in the primary process."
I'm sorry, I don't remember that 4 years ago, the democrats went thru this "process"! As I recall, everyone was quite satisfied with the field of candidates - they were all articulate, had coherent thoughts, were personal without being pretentious, and based in REALITY, if I remember correctly - oh that's right the democrats were E-X-C-I-T-E-D!!!!
I guess that's the difference - the "real world" and the GOP alternative reality - even their "base" is starting to see the difference!!
I said it before, I'll say it again: The more comfortable Mitt becomes as frontrunner, the more he says what he really thinks, and what he really thinks is really unattractive!
"I'm not concerned about the poor."
"A ten thousand dollar bet?"
"Heh, heh, heh"
"I like being able to fire people who provide services to me."
"Corporations are people, my friend."
Keep talking Mitt. The more you say, the better!
Have you noticed that Romney can't bring himself to utter the word "class"? They are "middle-income earners." It's as if he was terrified that by pointing out to voters that they comprise a class, "class warfare" would immediately ensue--and there are a lot more of us than there are "upper-income earners."
That's not just a Romney thing. My mother's parents were old-money Rhode Island Society, and one does not speak of such things as class. It is classless to discuss class, and the word classy? had better never cross your lips. Nothing is as crass as that word.
What we are seeing in Romney's behavior is completely normal for old-money upper class society. Not necessarily the robotic body language, but the speech is definitely codified by his family's longstanding wealth.
It would be interesting to see this chart superimposed over that of other likely R candidates. I think one problem facing Republican voters is that even though they are more than willing to express their discontent with Romney, they have to hold their nose and vote for him because the alternatives are even less appealing. Do you want Paul the the gold standard debate? How about Newt and the $1.6 million "consultation fee?" Or let's just go with Santorum who (even beyond Google) has problems in appealing to any outside the radical brand of intolerant Christian extremism that he represents.
to know Willard is to dislike him
This is why it took me so long to believe Romney would get it. Even 'electability' works against him. But the emetic qualities of Nasty Newt were too strong for even Republican stomachs, and Little Ricky becomes just another Altar Boy misled by his Spiritual Advisor. (This time it was 'the check is in the mail,' not 'God won't mind if you help Father feel good.')
Okay, so now he's the almost certain nominee, can we let the pros concentrate on the easy job of beating him, and let's concentrate our energies on Congress, mostly, but on Governors and State Legislatures as well. It's too late to reverse the disaster of 2010 -- the redictricting is done, the Senate is more controlled by filibusters, and Obama will have an almost impossible task getting a SCOTUS Nominee through befre the end of his term -- but we can at least 'mitigate damages.'
I recall a news report after New Hampshire saying that now that Romney was the clear frontrunner and the "retail politics" states were over, his campaign was planning to have him interact with ordinary voters less (and do ads and speeches instead.) So it's not just that he's having to express unpopular hard-right positions, or that he's being attacked, his campaign was already well aware that if people get to know him, they don't like him. What's mystifying is why they think they can win the general election with a huge liability like that.
Everyone has seemed to miss Mitt's real gaffe. He said that he wasn't worried about the poor because they had a safety net. And then said "IF there were holes in the net I will fix them". IF...IF there are holes in the net???? He has no idea what the poor face, or what the holes are. Hopeless.
Rachel! You got the chart wrong on your show tonight!!!! The legend was reversed!!! You showed Green as Favorable, and going sky-high. And you showed Blue as Unfavorable, falling fast.