There can be little doubt that Mitt Romney dominated in Florida's Republican presidential primary, but there were a few tidbits in the exit polls that stood out, including this one:
This has to be discouraging for the former governor and his campaign. Romney and his allies spent $16 million in the state, but on the day of the primary, nearly 4 in 10 Florida Republicans still wish someone better would get into the race.
It might help explain the GOP's ongoing turnout problem.
Underneath tonight's big win for Mitt Romney in the Florida Republican primary, is a statistic that might suggest enthusiasm is flagging among GOP voters in this large and crucial swing state: turnout was actually down significantly from 2008.
In the 2008 Republican primary in Florida, in which John McCain beat Romney by a margin of 36%-31%, a total of nearly 1.95 million votes were cast.
But in tonight's primary, turnout was actually much lower. At time of writing, with 98% of precincts reporting, the total turnout is only about 1.65 million -- a drop-off of 15% in terms of the raw number of voters.
If this sounds familiar, it's because most of the party's other January contests showed a similar trend.
In the Iowa caucuses, GOP turnout fell short of expectations. In the New Hampshire primary, it happened again. Turnout in South Carolina was strong, but after another weak showing in Florida, it's proving to be the exception.
This is not at all what Republican leaders anticipated. On the contrary, GOP officials in the states and at the national level assumed the exact opposite would happen.
Remember, Republican turnout was supposed to soar in these early contests because of the larger circumstances. GOP voters are reportedly eager, if not foaming-at-the-mouth desperate, to fight a crusade against President Obama, and they had plenty of high-profile candidates trying to stoke their enthusiasm.
This, coupled with the boost from the so-called Tea Party "movement," suggested energized Republicans would turn out in numbers that far exceeded the totals we saw in 2008, when GOP voters were depressed and it was Democrats who enjoyed the bulk of the excitement.
But in three of the four contests thus far, that hasn't happened.
At this point in the nominating process, the last thing party leaders wanted to see was evidence of a listless, uninspired party, underwhelmed by their field of candidates. Republicans probably won't fret publicly, but the turnout numbers should give party leaders pause.
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Just wondering how many jobs that $15million created in Florida.
Can you imagine if all the money spent by superpacs and candidates was actually circulating in the economy instead of politics?
It jibes with my observation - mentioned on a few other threads - that the earnest middle and small-c conservatives are increasingly aware that their choices are limited to: Crazy, Even Crazier, Corporate-Rule or Re-elect the President. They are almost as frustrated as the ultra-lefty Democrats who abandoned the party in 2010 and allowed the Tea Party ilk to take over Congress. Many of them are going to hold their noses in November and vote to re-elect BHO, simply because they cannot stomach the alternatives.
Great observation, and I love your characterizations of the GOP candidates still standing.
President Obama can you please sing a few more verses, I am still crying from trying to clean out my ear sockets from that I don't what Romney sound.
It's a very sad day in America when the Republican party is so fragmented, the only thing keeping the differing factions together is the Hate Obama base!
Seems even those Republican voters aren't too enthused with the current slate of Republican B-runs! Who will be their White Knight? -Kevo
True that. And I don't see how that small group of racist throwbacks can possibly impact an election except in a scozzafava'ing kinda way. That is - if they even tolerated a non- or anti- racist candidate. A party too stupid to even hedge THAT bet is also doomed to the economic Stockholm Syndrome, Meritocracy Myth - believers, and that constituency is also dwindling rapidly as the lower classes fall off the victim tree and the investor/gamblers become the low-hanging fruit for the 0.00001%
I've been warning them for years "theah can Beee only wahn" and they never seem to get it until it's too late. And the idiots still go down desperately clutching at tax breaks and deregulation for their predators....
Two things jumped out at me last night.
First, it was noticeable how little support Romney got in the rural Panhandle, and if you watched the percentages on the screen as the late tally's came in it was palpable. At one point, Romney had more than 50% of the vote and every time the results from Northern Florida were updated it kept dropping. I suspect Super Tuesday isn't going to be a victory lap for Bain Boy.
Second, as most of last night's "anchor panel" observed, Newt and Mitt really, really, really hate each other and I cannot imagine a Republican heavyweight holding a "let's all be friends" dinner at the end the way Sen. Feinstein did with Obama and Clinton.
Finally, and only semi-related, I was very proud of Rev. Al last night for taking on and calling out the man from Newt's SuperPac on Gingrich's race baiting, his xenophobia, and his destructive comments and ads.
Just re-watched the exchange between Rev. Al and Rick Tyler. Al took Tyler to task, and Tyler had no answers. At one point Tyler nearly twisted himself into a Democrat with his comments. It was great! And in the end all he could offer was "free enterprise will lift blacks out of poverty." Really? The same way it did under Bush?
The same old right wing talking points for 30 years after the begining of trickle down and that's all they have and none of these policies after this period of time has done anything for anyone in this country but thise at the top(1%).
The panhandle is the rightest of the right and Gingrich would have swept ALL the counties except one (Leon, the State Capital and home to two universities and which is, in a genreal election, more ofthen than not Blue) except for the overseas absentee votes (i.e. the military) which are often deciding factors in the two counties (Okaloosa and Bay) Romney carried. These ballots went out, and most were returned, before the Second Coming of Noot! Noot! in SC.
Weren't the Republicans counting on the "enthusiasm gap" again this year?
Not that the Democrats are looking to be doing all that spectacularly there either, but still ...
This could be a problem -- for both parties -- in the general election too, since I believe it's still true that negative campaigns suppress turnout. The FLA primary was one of the most relentlessly and hugely negative. But the general election will probably be largely negative too, especially from SuperPACS.
And IIRC, suppressed turnout generally helps Republicans.
Couple this with the GOP's voter suppression drives in the states, and the cuckoos have actually shot themselves in the foot. But that's as irrelevant as the GOP, The Democratic party, Congrress, the President, and C-Span. We all know by now that's nothing but a doomed corporate charade.
I've stopped watching political stations, news, & pundit shows (though it was almost ALL I watched for the past three years!) out of sheer embarrassment at their taking the GOP seriously, and disgust at the mendacity of giving an extinct party/ideology ("conservatism") ANY free publicity (never mind ALL THIS) just for the cheap content.
If they wanted to be relevant to Democracy and American Politics as it actually IS(and still cheap content btw) they'd replay livestreams of #OccupyWallSt. They will eventually anyway. If they actually wanted to perpetuate their TV stations/NW's, they'd use the high quality equipment to BE the livestreamers. Commercial TV (at least for "news") WILL be extincted by aggregated livestreams in ten years, similar to how digital video and the PC destroyed the entire A/V post/production market. (Ask me how I know, I worked in that extinct market in Manhattan for 15 years.)
The "Occupy" movement (and its media) will completely REPLACE the corporatist pseudoDemocracy by 2020. Congress will be repaced by GA's, and there will be NO president except in name among the completely isolated (and FOREIGN-based) corporate powers and the paltry few who watch the Pro Wrestling-like charade on their corporate TV stations.
Oh wait - that's HERE ---NOW.
At least the 'Independent' TV "networks" should Please try to keep up.
And corporate shill networks: the "reality show" approach was close in concept but absolute crap in content. It's the problem of retaining your control-based outmoded "show" aspect that ruins it. Watch some livestreames of OWS and you'll see you can never fake reality.
Corporations: Learn from the failure of the TEAparty reality control trick. You're doomed to always be busted. Soon we will tax the hell out of, and drive you out; to keep our jobs and money company in the third world hells your slave labor practices perpetuate, and will be forced to live in them personally. Tariffs will force you out of the market to live in Dubai, and it too will turn into decrepit defunct housing projects. The day of preposterous world-destroying profits is OVER.
"OCCUPY" (and Egypt) show us, Democracy <especially in America, its birthplace (OK, with France ;})> will eventually prevail.
(hey NATO - get ready to help the American People as you did Egypt & Syria. You're already needed in Oakland.)
Syria?? I think Libia would have been a better example.
No doubt the low voter enthusiasm stems from the fact that a nominating contest forces one to look into the mirror. Staring back at Republican voters are a corporate-Wall-Street-promise-everyhting-flip-flopper and a thrice-married-moonbase-crazy-bombast. For a group of people who don't do self reflection well, this unpleasantry will probably be skipped in favor of a vote in November to kick the Kenyan Muslim negro out of their White House. Mirror bad, hate good, mmmmmmm.
Couple this with the GOP's voter suppression drives in the states, and the cuckoos have actually shot themselves in the foot. But that's as irrelevant as the GOP, The Democratic party, Congrress, the President, and C-Span. We all know by now that's nothing but a doomed corporate charade.
I've stopped watching political stations, news, & pundit shows (though it was almost ALL I watched for the past three years!) out of sheer embarrassment at their taking the GOP seriously, and disgust at the mendacity of giving an extinct party/ideology ("conservatism") ANY free publicity (never mind ALL THIS) just for the cheap content.
If they wanted to be relevant to Democracy and American Politics as it actually IS(and still cheap content btw) they'd replay livestreams of #OccupyWallSt. They will eventually anyway. If they actually wanted to perpetuate their TV stations/NW's, they'd use the high quality equipment to BE the livestreamers. Commercial TV (at least for "news") WILL be extincted by aggregated livestreams in ten years, similar to how digital video and the PC destroyed the entire A/V post/production market. (Ask me how I know, I worked in that extinct market in Manhattan for 15 years.)
The "Occupy" movement (and its media) will completely REPLACE the corporatist pseudoDemocracy by 2020. Congress will be repaced by GA's, and there will be NO president except in name among the completely isolated (and FOREIGN-based) corporate powers and the paltry few who watch the Pro Wrestling-like charade on their corporate TV stations.
Oh wait - that's HERE ---NOW.
At least the 'Independent' TV "networks" should Please try to keep up.
And corporate shill networks: the "reality show" approach was close in concept but absolute crap in content. It's the problem of retaining your control-based outmoded "show" aspect that ruins it. Watch some livestreames of OWS and you'll see you can never fake reality.
Corporations: Learn from the failure of the TEAparty reality control trick. You're doomed to always be busted. Soon we will tax the hell out of, and drive you out; to keep our jobs and money company in the third world hells your slave labor practices perpetuate, and will be forced to live in them personally. Tariffs will force you out of the market to live in Dubai, and it too will turn into decrepit defunct housing projects. The day of preposterous world-destroying profits is OVER.
"OCCUPY" (and Egypt) show us, Democracy <especially in America, its birthplace (OK, with France ;})> will eventually prevail.
(hey NATO - get ready to help the American People as you did Egypt & Syria. You're already needed in Oakland.)
The only tactic the GOP has is to try and put Obama on the defensive by lying. Their total lack of honesty combined with their attacks on women's rights and unions along with their standard cries against public education and the media would seem to reduce the entire party to a base of nut jobs. Religious zealots , ignorant rednecks and of course Corporate slime do not equate into massive votes. Next on the agenda will be giving corporations the right to vote and a huge perchtage of votes per dollar of campaign funding.
We all know fact's don't mean a thing to the GOP!
Charley James,I'm with you on that one the guys spin was making me dizzy.The biggest part was at the end of the interview was when he said that the GOP hasn't had a chance at helping African Americans and when asked what was it he is proposing to to it was the same old right wing nut talking points of lower taxes,free enterprise and the other usual suspects.They are just using these people and their plight.We all know the GOP is all about the 1% no matter what they say.
Thank you so much for reporting this depressed turnout, which seems to me to be exceptionally significant.
They're just not happy with who they've got. I wouldn't be either. The candidates seem to get worse the more we see of 'em. I think Huntsman was their best shot but, he wasn't crazy or hateful enough. We'll see how it affects general turnout.....
It would be hard for me to over emphasize how happy I am that you are still doing a regular blog. The Maddowblog is very lucky to have you in my humble opinion. Thanks.
Just a note on overall turnout: It was, as has been widely reported, down from 2008. There is a solid, local reason for this. In 2008 the Presidential Primary ballot also contained a property tax relief Constituional amendment (rerquiring 60% "yes" for approval) and its inclusion drove turnout up. No such external "draw" was present this time.
Oh Mr. Benen, you're blogging again!! Hooray! That GOP turnout is going to be a problem for whichever candidate that they don't like less..
If Romney has to spend 4 to 1 to swat Gingrich, then how much is he going to have to spend trying to defeat Obama? I don't think Romney and the Republicans have enough money to win the general election unless they cannibalize the Senate and House elections.
Good to see you taking off at full throttle Steve.
This observation jibes with comments I am hearing anecdotally from Republican acquaintances who don't think much of the candidates they have to vote for this year. There is a certain resignation that "that man in the white house" (interestingly enough, that's also the term their parents and grandparents used to use equally disdainfully about FDR) will win. I think this awareness is more widespread, even among the hairballs, and that is what is depressing their turnout.
Great to see you blogging again Benen. I have been waiting expectantly to follow you here ORgone.
$15million for a low voter turnout encourages me that money cannot match the people's will.
Shout Out.....Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, (yes)Florida, Nevada, Colorado, the Entire West Coast (congrats to Bonamici). 4 more years. I smell roses.
Mr. Benen thank you for posting this- I had asked about it last night and am glad to see an answer is to be had. So my next question is- does this mean that the whole hooplah about the Tea Party really isn't as big of a deal as the media made it out to be?
GOP numbers should be much higher in 2012, given that the 2008 primaries also featured a fiercely competitive Democratic Primary between Obama and Clinton. With Obama running unopposed, many independents and Democrats should be turning out to vote in the GOP Primaries where they are allowed. That means these numbers are even more dismal for Republicans than at first glance, since Democrats and half the independents will be voting for Obama in the Fall.
I just called Komen headquarters in Tx never got to speak to a person. Called my hometown Komen office they listened and were nice then called Kansas City office, I told them how disappointed I was with them and explained how I felt all women needed to stick together especially now that women's bodies were legislatively being assaulted - her response was that they could not deal with a group that was being criminally investigated (Planned Parenthood) - I said you and I both know that is a sham and a hatchet job under the disguise of anti-abortionist - she said "no, I don't know that" and she was sad for me that I could not understand what Komen was doing. I told her I felt sad for Komen that they think women are stupid enough to believe their excuse or they are so misinformed politcally that they don't know what's going on and being used by the religious right which will hurt them monetarily and ruin their reputation with women. The Komen foundation obviously want to be manipulated by men. Oh, and by the way, don't buy their merchandise, it is very poor quality.
Thank you so much for reporting this depressed turnout, which seems to me to be exceptionally significant.